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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
9
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+2.88vs Predicted
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2SUNY Maritime College1.88+2.22vs Predicted
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3Cornell University0.46+3.97vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.81+0.15vs Predicted
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5Cornell University0.98+1.00vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.27-0.71vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.42-1.99vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.58-3.36vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.89-4.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1616.8%1st Place
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4.22SUNY Maritime College1.8816.2%1st Place
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6.97Cornell University0.463.4%1st Place
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4.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.8115.1%1st Place
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6.0Cornell University0.987.2%1st Place
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5.29George Washington University1.279.4%1st Place
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5.01Fordham University1.4210.3%1st Place
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4.64University of Pennsylvania1.5811.7%1st Place
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4.84Fordham University1.899.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 16.8% | 18.1% | 14.0% | 14.1% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 2.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 16.2% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% |
| Aidan Lane | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 17.5% | 38.0% |
| Richard Gleason | 15.1% | 15.3% | 13.6% | 13.7% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 3.3% |
| Sophia Peck | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 13.1% | 17.3% | 20.8% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 9.4% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 11.5% |
| Beckett Kumler | 10.3% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 8.0% |
| Cole Woodworth | 11.7% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 6.0% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 9.8% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 11.7% | 5.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.