Race 4A

ashley-river

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

90.0%
Within 2 Positions
0.8
Avg Position Diff
10
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Diego Carvajal 39.2% 27.1% 17.5% 9.0% 4.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
William Turner 24.2% 25.8% 20.1% 14.4% 8.8% 5.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Samantha Bialek 7.9% 10.1% 14.1% 17.2% 17.1% 14.4% 11.2% 6.0% 1.9% 0.1%
Noah Frank 9.7% 13.7% 15.6% 18.1% 16.4% 13.2% 8.2% 3.8% 1.3% 0.1%
Ian Hoogenboom 8.2% 12.1% 12.9% 16.3% 17.5% 15.4% 9.2% 5.5% 2.5% 0.3%
Robert Prause 4.5% 4.8% 7.4% 9.8% 13.5% 16.5% 18.7% 14.0% 8.8% 2.2%
Aidan Murphy 2.1% 2.4% 3.5% 4.9% 7.1% 10.1% 16.1% 21.6% 20.0% 12.4%
Crispin Martin 1.1% 1.1% 2.5% 2.5% 4.0% 6.2% 8.9% 15.6% 27.8% 30.5%
Campbell Tate 2.4% 2.7% 5.0% 6.3% 8.6% 13.2% 18.5% 21.1% 16.2% 6.0%
Nellie Little 0.9% 0.5% 1.4% 1.5% 2.6% 4.0% 7.1% 12.1% 21.4% 48.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.