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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University1.25+9.43vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.18+4.23vs Predicted
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3Connecticut College0.88+8.51vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.58+5.35vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.09+1.27vs Predicted
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6Brown University1.55+2.62vs Predicted
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7Yale University1.90+0.06vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.82-0.63vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.33+0.16vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.22-4.29vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.43+1.40vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40-3.23vs Predicted
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13Brown University1.42-4.16vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.01-3.38vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-4.41vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College0.27-2.83vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.60-1.34vs Predicted
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18Yale University1.47-8.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.43Yale University1.254.7%1st Place
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6.23Yale University2.1810.5%1st Place
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11.51Connecticut College0.882.4%1st Place
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9.35Roger Williams University1.585.1%1st Place
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6.27Roger Williams University2.0910.9%1st Place
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8.62Brown University1.556.2%1st Place
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7.06Yale University1.908.0%1st Place
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7.37Brown University1.828.2%1st Place
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9.16Brown University1.334.2%1st Place
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5.71Brown University2.2211.5%1st Place
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12.4Connecticut College0.432.4%1st Place
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8.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.405.3%1st Place
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8.84Brown University1.425.7%1st Place
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10.62Roger Williams University1.013.1%1st Place
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10.59U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.083.8%1st Place
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13.17Connecticut College0.272.0%1st Place
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15.66U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.600.7%1st Place
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9.26Yale University1.475.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christophe Chaumont | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 3.8% |
| Mateo Farina | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 5.7% |
| George Higham | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| Oliver Stokke | 10.9% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Emily Mueller | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Nathan Sih | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Styron | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 1.1% |
| Mason Stang | 11.5% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Powers | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 14.2% | 10.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Connor Macken | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Luke Hosek | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 3.0% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.2% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 18.4% | 15.0% |
| Luke Slosar | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 13.2% | 51.8% |
| Sam Tobin | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.