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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University1.47+8.22vs Predicted
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2Yale University1.90+5.20vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.82+4.42vs Predicted
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4Yale University2.18+2.07vs Predicted
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5Yale University1.25+5.51vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.58+3.14vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.09-0.64vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+1.04vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.33-0.02vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+0.68vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.88+0.41vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.27+1.09vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.22-7.38vs Predicted
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14Brown University1.55-5.25vs Predicted
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15Brown University1.42-6.08vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University1.01-5.58vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.43-4.59vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.60-2.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.22Yale University1.475.5%1st Place
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7.2Yale University1.907.9%1st Place
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7.42Brown University1.828.1%1st Place
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6.07Yale University2.1810.4%1st Place
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10.51Yale University1.253.7%1st Place
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9.14Roger Williams University1.585.6%1st Place
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6.36Roger Williams University2.0910.8%1st Place
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9.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.404.7%1st Place
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8.98Brown University1.335.9%1st Place
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10.68U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.083.1%1st Place
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11.41Connecticut College0.883.2%1st Place
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13.09Connecticut College0.271.8%1st Place
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5.62Brown University2.2212.2%1st Place
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8.75Brown University1.555.0%1st Place
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8.92Brown University1.425.9%1st Place
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10.42Roger Williams University1.013.8%1st Place
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12.41Connecticut College0.431.7%1st Place
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15.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.600.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Tobin | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| Nathan Sih | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Styron | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Mateo Farina | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 3.0% |
| George Higham | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Oliver Stokke | 10.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 3.9% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 5.1% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 17.6% | 14.9% |
| Mason Stang | 12.2% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Emily Mueller | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Connor Macken | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Luke Hosek | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 3.5% |
| Andrew Powers | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 10.4% |
| Luke Slosar | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 14.9% | 51.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.