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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.09+5.20vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College0.43+10.25vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08+7.62vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.58+5.13vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.55+3.72vs Predicted
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6Yale University1.90+0.93vs Predicted
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7Yale University1.47+2.47vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.33+1.16vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.82-1.57vs Predicted
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10Yale University1.25+0.56vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.22-5.25vs Predicted
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12Yale University2.18-5.86vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40-4.36vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.01-3.49vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.60+0.79vs Predicted
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16Brown University1.42-7.11vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.27-3.77vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.88-6.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.2Roger Williams University2.0910.7%1st Place
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12.25Connecticut College0.432.7%1st Place
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10.62U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.084.0%1st Place
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9.13Roger Williams University1.584.6%1st Place
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8.72Brown University1.555.7%1st Place
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6.93Yale University1.907.9%1st Place
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9.47Yale University1.473.6%1st Place
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9.16Brown University1.335.5%1st Place
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7.43Brown University1.827.5%1st Place
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10.56Yale University1.253.2%1st Place
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5.75Brown University2.2213.0%1st Place
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6.14Yale University2.1810.8%1st Place
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8.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.406.6%1st Place
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10.51Roger Williams University1.014.0%1st Place
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15.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.600.4%1st Place
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8.89Brown University1.425.2%1st Place
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13.23Connecticut College0.272.1%1st Place
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11.57Connecticut College0.882.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Stokke | 10.7% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Powers | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 9.8% |
| Peter McGonagle | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 3.4% |
| George Higham | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Emily Mueller | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Sih | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Sam Tobin | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 0.9% |
| Thomas Styron | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 2.9% |
| Mason Stang | 13.0% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Farina | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 0.9% |
| Luke Hosek | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 3.9% |
| Luke Slosar | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 8.5% | 14.8% | 51.3% |
| Connor Macken | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 17.2% | 14.7% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 6.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.