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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.22+4.70vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.55+6.51vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.33+5.98vs Predicted
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4Yale University1.25+6.86vs Predicted
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5Brown University1.82+2.52vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.09+0.17vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+1.79vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University1.58+1.12vs Predicted
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9Yale University2.18-2.89vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.42-0.96vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.43+1.31vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.88-0.53vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.01-2.46vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-3.30vs Predicted
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15Yale University1.47-5.65vs Predicted
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16Yale University1.90-8.72vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.27-3.97vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.60-2.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.7Brown University2.2212.6%1st Place
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8.51Brown University1.556.5%1st Place
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8.98Brown University1.335.1%1st Place
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10.86Yale University1.253.4%1st Place
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7.52Brown University1.827.0%1st Place
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6.17Roger Williams University2.0910.4%1st Place
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8.79U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.406.0%1st Place
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9.12Roger Williams University1.585.8%1st Place
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6.11Yale University2.1810.2%1st Place
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9.04Brown University1.426.0%1st Place
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12.31Connecticut College0.432.5%1st Place
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11.47Connecticut College0.882.8%1st Place
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10.54Roger Williams University1.013.5%1st Place
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10.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.083.1%1st Place
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9.35Yale University1.474.3%1st Place
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7.28Yale University1.907.9%1st Place
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13.03Connecticut College0.272.2%1st Place
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15.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.600.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Stang | 12.6% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Emily Mueller | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 4.5% |
| Thomas Styron | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Oliver Stokke | 10.4% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| George Higham | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
| Mateo Farina | 10.2% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Connor Macken | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.1% |
| Andrew Powers | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 10.2% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 5.7% |
| Luke Hosek | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 2.9% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 3.2% |
| Sam Tobin | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Nathan Sih | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 9.5% | 11.6% | 16.2% | 15.8% |
| Luke Slosar | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 15.0% | 49.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.