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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College1.95+3.46vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.69+3.22vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.60+2.28vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.45+1.96vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College0.38+4.09vs Predicted
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6Yale University1.37+0.02vs Predicted
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7Yale University0.07+3.07vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College0.60+0.74vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University1.24-2.49vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College1.37-3.87vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College0.52-2.28vs Predicted
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12Brown University-0.04-1.67vs Predicted
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13Yale University0.36-3.55vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.43-4.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.46Boston College1.9515.9%1st Place
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5.22Brown University1.6911.3%1st Place
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5.28Roger Williams University1.6012.7%1st Place
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5.96Connecticut College1.459.9%1st Place
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9.09Connecticut College0.383.6%1st Place
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6.02Yale University1.379.8%1st Place
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10.07Yale University0.072.9%1st Place
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8.74Connecticut College0.604.0%1st Place
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6.51Roger Williams University1.248.3%1st Place
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6.13Connecticut College1.379.1%1st Place
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8.72Connecticut College0.523.1%1st Place
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10.33Brown University-0.042.2%1st Place
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9.45Yale University0.363.5%1st Place
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9.02Connecticut College0.433.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 15.9% | 16.6% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Katherine McNamara | 11.3% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Jack Roman | 12.7% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Harris Padegs | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Liam Gronda | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 12.4% | 11.8% |
| Ximena Escobar | 9.8% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Beck Lorsch | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 14.2% | 19.4% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.4% |
| William Bailey | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| William Bedford | 9.1% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.6% |
| Caroline Keeffe-Jones | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 24.3% |
| Sam Rifkind-Brown | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 12.7% |
| Jean-Michel Bus | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.