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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.58+7.93vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.18+4.10vs Predicted
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3Yale University1.25+7.53vs Predicted
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4Yale University1.47+5.15vs Predicted
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5Yale University1.90+2.04vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.09+0.16vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College0.88+4.53vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40+0.90vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.33-0.01vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.01+0.49vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.82-3.56vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.08-1.16vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.43-0.71vs Predicted
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14Brown University2.22-8.08vs Predicted
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15Brown University1.42-5.96vs Predicted
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16Brown University1.55-7.34vs Predicted
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17U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.60-1.30vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College0.27-4.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.93Roger Williams University1.586.2%1st Place
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6.1Yale University2.1811.6%1st Place
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10.53Yale University1.253.3%1st Place
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9.15Yale University1.475.1%1st Place
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7.04Yale University1.908.9%1st Place
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6.16Roger Williams University2.0910.8%1st Place
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11.53Connecticut College0.882.9%1st Place
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8.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.405.7%1st Place
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8.99Brown University1.335.8%1st Place
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10.49Roger Williams University1.013.4%1st Place
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7.44Brown University1.826.2%1st Place
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10.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.083.6%1st Place
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12.29Connecticut College0.431.8%1st Place
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5.92Brown University2.2211.6%1st Place
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9.04Brown University1.425.1%1st Place
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8.66Brown University1.555.8%1st Place
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15.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy-0.600.5%1st Place
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13.28Connecticut College0.271.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Higham | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| Mateo Farina | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 3.7% |
| Sam Tobin | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Sih | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Oliver Stokke | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Mckinney | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 6.9% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Luke Hosek | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 2.8% |
| Thomas Styron | 6.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Peter McGonagle | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 3.9% |
| Andrew Powers | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 14.0% | 9.3% |
| Mason Stang | 11.6% | 10.4% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Macken | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Emily Mueller | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Luke Slosar | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 7.0% | 14.4% | 51.2% |
| Charles Bresnahan | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 18.4% | 14.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.