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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+5.53vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.65+5.42vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.74+8.08vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College2.74+6.68vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.74+1.91vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont2.55+5.49vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.05+2.55vs Predicted
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8Brown University3.88-1.66vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College2.96+0.94vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin3.19-0.67vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.97-0.97vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University3.73-4.69vs Predicted
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13Boston College3.92-6.82vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan1.60+0.23vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.67-7.89vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-8.58vs Predicted
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17Washington College2.45-5.00vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute-0.56-0.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.53St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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7.42Tufts University3.650.1%1st Place
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11.08Bowdoin College2.740.0%1st Place
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10.68SUNY Maritime College2.740.0%1st Place
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6.91Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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11.49University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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9.55Harvard University3.050.1%1st Place
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6.34Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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9.94Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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9.33University of Wisconsin3.190.1%1st Place
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10.03Dartmouth College2.970.0%1st Place
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7.31Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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6.18Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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14.23University of Michigan1.600.0%1st Place
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7.11U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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7.42Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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12.0Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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17.45Webb Institute-0.560.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Curtiss | 8.8% | 11.0% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Swain | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Tom Peabody | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 0.8% |
| Mike Carr | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 0.7% |
| Marlena Fauer | 9.5% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 1.5% |
| Michael Drumm | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 0.3% |
| Pearson Potts | 10.1% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 0.1% |
| Michael Lee | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Price | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 0.7% |
| Connor Corgard | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| William Bailey | 11.2% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| David Oliver | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 12.9% | 37.5% | 7.2% |
| Patrick Snow | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Stewart | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 15.4% | 13.1% | 1.7% |
| Thomas Hickey | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 5.4% | 86.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.