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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.74+6.19vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.05+7.83vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+3.50vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.73+2.91vs Predicted
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5Boston College3.92+1.23vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.67+1.19vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College2.97+2.96vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-0.68vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.65-1.79vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.45+2.08vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.88-4.46vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.74-0.88vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin3.19-4.05vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont2.55-2.79vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.74-4.21vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.96-5.96vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.60-2.49vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute-0.56-0.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.19Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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9.83Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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6.5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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6.91Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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6.23Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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7.19U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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9.96Dartmouth College2.970.0%1st Place
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7.32Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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7.21Tufts University3.650.1%1st Place
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12.08Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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6.54Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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11.12SUNY Maritime College2.740.0%1st Place
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8.95University of Wisconsin3.190.1%1st Place
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11.21University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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10.79Bowdoin College2.740.0%1st Place
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10.04Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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14.51University of Michigan1.600.0%1st Place
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17.43Webb Institute-0.560.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlena Fauer | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Drumm | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 9.3% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Corgard | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| William Bailey | 11.6% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 8.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Price | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 0.6% |
| Alexander Stewart | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Swain | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 14.2% | 1.2% |
| Pearson Potts | 10.0% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Mike Carr | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 1.0% |
| Michael Lee | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Steven Pelissier | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 7.7% | 1.7% |
| Tom Peabody | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 0.5% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 0.5% |
| David Oliver | 1.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 13.9% | 39.9% | 7.8% |
| Thomas Hickey | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 86.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.