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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+5.54vs Predicted
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2University of Wisconsin3.19+7.32vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.92+3.46vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.88+2.36vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.73+1.96vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.67+1.17vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.74+3.79vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.05+1.52vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-1.67vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.74-2.83vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.97-0.92vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.55-0.14vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.96-3.20vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College2.74-3.48vs Predicted
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15Tufts University3.65-7.75vs Predicted
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16Washington College2.45-4.05vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan1.60-2.50vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute-0.56-0.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.54St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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9.32University of Wisconsin3.190.0%1st Place
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6.46Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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6.36Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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6.96Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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7.17U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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10.79SUNY Maritime College2.740.0%1st Place
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9.52Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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7.33Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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7.17Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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10.08Dartmouth College2.970.0%1st Place
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11.86University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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9.8Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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10.52Bowdoin College2.740.0%1st Place
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7.25Tufts University3.650.1%1st Place
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11.95Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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14.5University of Michigan1.600.0%1st Place
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17.42Webb Institute-0.560.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Curtiss | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Lee | 4.1% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| William Bailey | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Pearson Potts | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Corgard | 8.8% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 8.5% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Mike Carr | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 1.0% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Stewart | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Marlena Fauer | 9.0% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Price | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 0.2% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 14.2% | 12.3% | 1.3% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Tom Peabody | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 5.9% | 1.1% |
| Duncan Swain | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 1.8% |
| David Oliver | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 39.3% | 7.9% |
| Thomas Hickey | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 5.2% | 86.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.