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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.96+9.12vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+4.45vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.73+4.18vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.67+3.11vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.55+6.34vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.88+0.44vs Predicted
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7Washington College2.45+4.90vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.74-1.13vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.05+0.63vs Predicted
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10Boston College3.92-3.54vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.97-0.96vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin3.19-2.53vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62-5.73vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.65-6.97vs Predicted
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15University of Michigan1.60-0.58vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College2.74-5.12vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.74-6.05vs Predicted
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18Webb Institute-0.56-0.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.12Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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6.45St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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7.18Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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7.11U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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11.34University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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6.44Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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11.9Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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6.87Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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9.63Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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6.46Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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10.04Dartmouth College2.970.0%1st Place
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9.47University of Wisconsin3.190.0%1st Place
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7.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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7.03Tufts University3.650.1%1st Place
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14.42University of Michigan1.600.0%1st Place
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10.88SUNY Maritime College2.740.0%1st Place
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10.95Bowdoin College2.740.0%1st Place
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17.43Webb Institute-0.560.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 0.4% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 8.7% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Corgard | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Snow | 9.0% | 9.7% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.6% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 1.4% |
| Pearson Potts | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 14.3% | 12.2% | 1.6% |
| Marlena Fauer | 8.5% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 0.1% |
| William Bailey | 10.4% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Price | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 0.5% |
| Michael Lee | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Alexander Stewart | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Swain | 8.7% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| David Oliver | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 13.9% | 38.4% | 7.2% |
| Mike Carr | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 0.9% |
| Tom Peabody | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 0.8% |
| Thomas Hickey | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 86.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.