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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.74+6.18vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.62+5.64vs Predicted
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3Boston College3.92+3.46vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+2.25vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont2.55+6.43vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.73+0.98vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.65+0.31vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy3.67-0.85vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin3.19+0.07vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.74+1.09vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.74-0.04vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan1.60+2.65vs Predicted
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13Brown University3.88-6.66vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College2.97-4.33vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.96-5.09vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.05-6.35vs Predicted
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17Webb Institute-0.56+0.53vs Predicted
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18Washington College2.45-6.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.18Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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7.64Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.620.1%1st Place
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6.46Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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6.25St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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11.43University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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6.98Roger Williams University3.730.1%1st Place
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7.31Tufts University3.650.1%1st Place
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7.15U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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9.07University of Wisconsin3.190.1%1st Place
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11.09Bowdoin College2.740.0%1st Place
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10.96SUNY Maritime College2.740.0%1st Place
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14.65University of Michigan1.600.0%1st Place
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6.34Brown University3.880.1%1st Place
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9.67Dartmouth College2.970.0%1st Place
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9.91Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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9.65Harvard University3.050.0%1st Place
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17.53Webb Institute-0.560.0%1st Place
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11.73Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlena Fauer | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Stewart | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| William Bailey | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 0.9% |
| Connor Corgard | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Duncan Swain | 7.6% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Patrick Snow | 7.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Michael Lee | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Tom Peabody | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 1.0% |
| Mike Carr | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 1.0% |
| David Oliver | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 13.2% | 39.7% | 8.1% |
| Pearson Potts | 10.6% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Price | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 0.2% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Michael Drumm | 4.4% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hickey | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 6.4% | 86.4% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 1.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.