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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College2.59+7.50vs Predicted
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2Northeastern University3.26+4.28vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.72+5.28vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College3.18+2.74vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.44+0.72vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.27+0.59vs Predicted
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7University of Connecticut1.93+4.15vs Predicted
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8McGill University1.67+3.77vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.00-1.54vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.52-4.47vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08-6.90vs Predicted
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12Maine Maritime Academy2.03-1.21vs Predicted
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13Bates College1.32+0.26vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University2.45-4.51vs Predicted
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16Worcester Polytechnic Institute1.71-4.17vs Predicted
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17Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.58-4.58vs Predicted
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18University of New Hampshire1.35-4.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.5Connecticut College2.590.1%1st Place
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6.28Northeastern University3.260.1%1st Place
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8.28University of Rhode Island2.720.1%1st Place
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6.74Bowdoin College3.180.1%1st Place
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5.72Dartmouth College3.440.1%1st Place
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6.59University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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11.15University of Connecticut1.930.0%1st Place
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11.77McGill University1.670.0%1st Place
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7.46Boston University3.000.0%1st Place
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5.53Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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4.1U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.2%1st Place
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10.79Maine Maritime Academy2.030.0%1st Place
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13.26Bates College1.320.0%1st Place
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9.49Salve Regina University2.450.0%1st Place
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11.83Worcester Polytechnic Institute1.710.0%1st Place
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12.42Massachusetts Maritime Academy1.580.0%1st Place
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13.1University of New Hampshire1.350.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellis Tonissi | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 0.5% |
| Maarten Eenkema Van Dijk | 8.8% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Samuel Cushing | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Jack McGuire | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Colin MURPHY | 11.3% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Michael Booker | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Fuller | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 5.8% |
| Yann Cudennec | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 12.3% |
| Cameron Fraser | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% |
| Willem Sandberg | 11.5% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Avery Fanning | 20.0% | 17.0% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 11.4% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hollister Poole | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% |
| Edward Moan | 1.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 12.2% | 17.7% | 22.9% |
| John Silvestri | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| Mike Brendlinger | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 11.3% |
| Andrew Morgan | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 15.1% |
| William Dykes | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 12.8% | 15.5% | 22.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.