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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University3.03+4.54vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.38+2.58vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University3.26+2.02vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.11+1.52vs Predicted
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5Drexel University0.70+8.07vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.85+3.83vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.30-2.14vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.26+0.08vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.60+1.61vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.86-3.93vs Predicted
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11Hampton University1.84-1.25vs Predicted
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12George Washington University2.23-3.74vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.98-0.51vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.67-3.65vs Predicted
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15William and Mary1.27-3.49vs Predicted
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16University of Maryland0.85-3.12vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.21-2.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.54Old Dominion University3.030.1%1st Place
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4.58U. S. Naval Academy3.380.2%1st Place
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5.02Georgetown University3.260.1%1st Place
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5.52St. Mary's College of Maryland3.110.1%1st Place
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13.07Drexel University0.700.0%1st Place
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9.83Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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4.86U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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8.08SUNY Maritime College2.260.1%1st Place
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10.61Cornell University1.600.0%1st Place
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6.07University of Vermont2.860.1%1st Place
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9.75Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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8.26George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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12.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.980.0%1st Place
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10.35Christopher Newport University1.670.0%1st Place
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11.51William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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12.88University of Maryland0.850.0%1st Place
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14.6Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin Leon | 11.9% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 16.4% | 12.5% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Mason | 12.6% | 14.7% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Wick Dudley | 11.7% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Mislinski | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 16.3% | 18.8% |
| John O'Riordan | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| Krysta Rohde | 12.6% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 12.4% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Lubliner | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Hillary Paulsen | 2.1% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 2.9% |
| Alexandra Arntsen | 8.8% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Meredith Carroll | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Alex Wood | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 12.9% |
| Tyler Myers | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 2.3% |
| Jonathan Conway | 1.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 6.2% |
| Jun Yu Huang | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 13.3% | 16.1% | 13.6% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 18.2% | 39.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.