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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
6
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University1.21+3.49vs Predicted
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2Washington College1.66+2.27vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.75-0.58vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.25-1.04vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-2.31vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.57-1.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.49Christopher Newport University1.216.7%1st Place
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4.27Washington College1.667.9%1st Place
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2.42Georgetown University2.7531.6%1st Place
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2.96U. S. Naval Academy2.2520.1%1st Place
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2.69St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5725.5%1st Place
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4.17Old Dominion University1.578.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Fox | 6.7% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 15.7% | 23.4% | 35.6% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.9% | 10.0% | 12.2% | 16.4% | 24.6% | 28.9% |
| Mariner Fagan | 31.6% | 27.6% | 18.5% | 14.0% | 6.6% | 1.8% |
| Gavin McJones | 20.1% | 21.4% | 22.8% | 18.6% | 11.9% | 5.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 25.5% | 23.3% | 23.0% | 15.9% | 9.2% | 3.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 8.2% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 19.4% | 24.2% | 25.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.