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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.18+2.96vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.42+3.47vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.66+6.57vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.38+2.09vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.38+1.20vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College1.95+2.05vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+2.01vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.05+2.71vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.02-1.72vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University2.68-4.65vs Predicted
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11Brown University1.25-0.98vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.67-3.86vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.39-3.96vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.18-3.57vs Predicted
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15Salve Regina University-0.70-0.45vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.09-2.14vs Predicted
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17Fairfield University-0.66-1.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.96Harvard University3.1819.4%1st Place
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5.47Yale University2.4211.2%1st Place
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9.57U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.663.0%1st Place
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6.09Bowdoin College2.388.6%1st Place
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6.2Dartmouth College2.389.6%1st Place
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8.05Connecticut College1.954.8%1st Place
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9.01Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.454.5%1st Place
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10.71University of Rhode Island1.053.1%1st Place
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7.28Boston College2.026.5%1st Place
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5.35Roger Williams University2.6813.0%1st Place
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10.02Brown University1.252.6%1st Place
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8.14Tufts University1.675.1%1st Place
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9.04Boston University1.394.6%1st Place
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10.43Northeastern University1.182.2%1st Place
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14.55Salve Regina University-0.700.7%1st Place
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13.86Massachusetts Maritime Academy-0.090.7%1st Place
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15.27Fairfield University-0.660.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Callahan | 19.4% | 17.7% | 15.2% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 11.2% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Kickhafer | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 6.2% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.6% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Walter Henry | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Olin Guck | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| Jack Redmond | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 13.0% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William George | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| John Eastman | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 2.2% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Sean Crandall | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 16.3% | 26.8% | 27.9% |
| John Van Zanten | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 17.8% | 25.9% | 18.9% |
| Andrew White | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 6.2% | 10.6% | 22.4% | 46.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.