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📊 Prediction Accuracy
77.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.11+4.91vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University3.26+3.37vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.38+1.98vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University3.03+1.93vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.30+0.09vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont2.86+0.48vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.23+1.81vs Predicted
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8Hampton University1.84+2.18vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.26-0.41vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia2.06-0.34vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University1.97-1.10vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.85-1.44vs Predicted
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13Cornell University1.60-2.00vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.98-1.00vs Predicted
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15University of Maryland0.85-1.34vs Predicted
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16Drexel University0.70-1.75vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.21-1.53vs Predicted
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18William and Mary1.27-5.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.91St. Mary's College of Maryland3.110.1%1st Place
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5.37Georgetown University3.260.1%1st Place
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4.98U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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5.93Old Dominion University3.030.1%1st Place
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5.09U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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6.48University of Vermont2.860.1%1st Place
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8.81George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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10.18Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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8.59SUNY Maritime College2.260.0%1st Place
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9.66University of Virginia2.060.0%1st Place
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9.9Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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10.56Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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11.0Cornell University1.600.0%1st Place
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13.0U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.980.0%1st Place
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13.66University of Maryland0.850.0%1st Place
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14.25Drexel University0.700.0%1st Place
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15.47Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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12.15William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wick Dudley | 10.4% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Mason | 9.8% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 13.1% | 12.6% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Collin Leon | 10.8% | 10.1% | 11.8% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Krysta Rohde | 14.3% | 14.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexandra Arntsen | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Carroll | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 3.9% | 2.3% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Scott Lubliner | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Mason Leon | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 0.5% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 1.0% |
| John O'Riordan | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| Hillary Paulsen | 2.7% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 2.5% |
| Alex Wood | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 13.2% | 14.0% | 10.5% |
| Jun Yu Huang | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 16.1% | 15.0% |
| Jennifer Mislinski | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 17.1% | 21.2% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 18.0% | 39.9% |
| Jonathan Conway | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 5.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.