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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+5.56vs Predicted
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2Palm Beach Atlantic University1.26+5.40vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.45+3.92vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.68+1.57vs Predicted
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5Fordham University0.64+4.46vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.60+0.52vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.50-0.25vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College0.76+1.27vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.18-1.14vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.94-4.76vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.78-1.92vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.72-5.32vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56-2.95vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.41-3.74vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College-0.27-2.62vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.56U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.559.6%1st Place
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7.4Palm Beach Atlantic University1.266.3%1st Place
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6.92University of Pennsylvania1.458.0%1st Place
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5.57Cornell University1.6811.9%1st Place
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9.46Fordham University0.643.2%1st Place
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6.52University of Pennsylvania1.609.9%1st Place
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6.75Fordham University1.508.6%1st Place
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9.27SUNY Maritime College0.763.6%1st Place
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7.86Fordham University1.185.7%1st Place
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5.24Fordham University1.9413.6%1st Place
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9.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.784.3%1st Place
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6.68University of Pennsylvania1.727.6%1st Place
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10.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.562.8%1st Place
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10.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.413.2%1st Place
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12.38SUNY Maritime College-0.271.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Vanderhorst | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Thomas Green | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Madeleine Rice | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 11.9% | 11.6% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Griffin Sisk | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 9.2% |
| Samuel Gavula | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Connor Bennett | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| John Vail | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 7.0% |
| Will Donovan | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.4% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 13.6% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Collin Porter | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 6.4% |
| Torrey Chisari | 7.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Brook Wood | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 13.2% |
| Cooper Delbridge | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 15.8% | 13.5% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 16.7% | 40.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.