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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.53+3.40vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University1.47+2.54vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.61+0.91vs Predicted
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40.22+3.97vs Predicted
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5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+0.63vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University0.84-0.24vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan0.10+1.44vs Predicted
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8Hampton University0.72-0.02vs Predicted
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9Clemson University-0.52+1.84vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University-0.87+2.33vs Predicted
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11University of Florida-1.42+2.86vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida-0.31-0.68vs Predicted
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13The Citadel-1.52+1.51vs Predicted
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14University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.36-0.27vs Predicted
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15University of South Carolina-0.41-4.91vs Predicted
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16Florida Institute of Technology-0.48-5.75vs Predicted
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17University of Central Florida-1.67-2.23vs Predicted
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18Florida State University-2.05-2.33vs Predicted
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19Embry-Riddle University-1.51-5.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.4North Carolina State University1.5316.5%1st Place
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4.54San Diego State University1.4715.2%1st Place
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3.91Roger Williams University1.6117.8%1st Place
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7.970.224.7%1st Place
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5.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.999.9%1st Place
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5.76Jacksonville University0.8410.2%1st Place
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8.44University of Michigan0.103.9%1st Place
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7.98Hampton University0.725.8%1st Place
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10.84Clemson University-0.522.5%1st Place
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12.33Christopher Newport University-0.871.7%1st Place
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13.86University of Florida-1.420.9%1st Place
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11.32University of South Florida-0.311.9%1st Place
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14.51The Citadel-1.520.4%1st Place
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13.73University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.360.8%1st Place
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10.09University of South Carolina-0.412.3%1st Place
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10.25Florida Institute of Technology-0.483.5%1st Place
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14.77University of Central Florida-1.670.8%1st Place
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15.67Florida State University-2.050.5%1st Place
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13.98Embry-Riddle University-1.510.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Usher | 16.5% | 14.6% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Aston Smith | 15.2% | 14.6% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristan McDonald | 17.8% | 18.6% | 14.9% | 13.2% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Jost | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Reed McAllister | 9.9% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefanos Pappas | 10.2% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted Sherman | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| William Avery | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Walter Roou | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 3.5% |
| Peter Vinogradov | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Garrett Floerchinger | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Damian Uzonwanne | 0.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 14.8% | 13.4% |
| Hailey Hathaway | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 9.6% |
| Andrew Ettlemyer | 2.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Sofia Scarpa | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Rain Hong | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 13.0% | 15.4% | 18.0% |
| Patrick Parker | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 16.1% | 29.3% |
| Josh Rosen | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 10.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.