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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.51+5.08vs Predicted
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2Washington College2.71+3.50vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.65+2.73vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania3.16+0.36vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.45+1.21vs Predicted
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6Penn State University1.35+4.11vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.19-2.76vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University2.21-0.96vs Predicted
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9Rutgers University0.75+2.94vs Predicted
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10Monmouth University1.95-2.11vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.55+0.44vs Predicted
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13University of Maryland/Baltimore County0.24+0.22vs Predicted
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14Villanova University1.30-3.82vs Predicted
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15Drexel University1.75-6.26vs Predicted
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16Columbia University-0.31-1.60vs Predicted
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17University of Delaware-0.75-1.68vs Predicted
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18Stevens Institute of Technology1.48-8.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.08U. S. Naval Academy2.510.1%1st Place
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5.5Washington College2.710.1%1st Place
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5.73Fordham University2.650.1%1st Place
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4.36University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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6.21Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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10.11Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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4.24St. Mary's College of Maryland3.190.2%1st Place
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7.04Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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11.94Rutgers University0.750.0%1st Place
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7.89Monmouth University1.950.0%1st Place
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12.44Princeton University0.550.0%1st Place
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13.22University of Maryland/Baltimore County0.240.0%1st Place
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10.18Villanova University1.300.0%1st Place
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8.74Drexel University1.750.0%1st Place
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14.4Columbia University-0.310.0%1st Place
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15.32University of Delaware-0.750.0%1st Place
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9.59Stevens Institute of Technology1.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Peck | 9.5% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Nunn | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Tell | 9.6% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 17.7% | 14.1% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Shanahan | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| Benjamin Garber | 17.2% | 14.9% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Courtney Williams | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 15.0% | 13.5% | 9.2% | 5.1% |
| Paul Stevens | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Andrew Grasso | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 15.1% | 15.5% | 6.9% |
| Adam Rybczynski | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 20.0% | 18.5% | 11.5% |
| Lindsey Press | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 0.5% |
| Joan Boyle | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Josiah Hyatt | 0.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 13.7% | 25.3% | 26.9% |
| Teddy Straus | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 11.9% | 20.0% | 46.9% |
| Nicolas Carabelli | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.