← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of Pennsylvania1.72+5.74vs Predicted
-
2Cornell University1.68+3.63vs Predicted
-
3University of Pennsylvania1.60+3.70vs Predicted
-
4Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.78+5.08vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55+1.44vs Predicted
-
6Fordham University1.94-0.76vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56+3.19vs Predicted
-
8University of Pennsylvania1.45-1.22vs Predicted
-
9SUNY Maritime College-0.27+3.27vs Predicted
-
10Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.41+0.46vs Predicted
-
11Fordham University1.18-3.16vs Predicted
-
12Fordham University1.50-5.38vs Predicted
-
13Fordham University0.64-3.49vs Predicted
-
14Palm Beach Atlantic University1.26-6.65vs Predicted
-
15SUNY Maritime College0.76-5.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.74University of Pennsylvania1.727.4%1st Place
-
5.63Cornell University1.6811.2%1st Place
-
6.7University of Pennsylvania1.608.6%1st Place
-
9.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.783.8%1st Place
-
6.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.559.2%1st Place
-
5.24Fordham University1.9414.1%1st Place
-
10.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.562.5%1st Place
-
6.78University of Pennsylvania1.459.7%1st Place
-
12.27SUNY Maritime College-0.271.6%1st Place
-
10.46Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.412.5%1st Place
-
7.84Fordham University1.186.2%1st Place
-
6.62Fordham University1.508.4%1st Place
-
9.51Fordham University0.643.5%1st Place
-
7.35Palm Beach Atlantic University1.267.1%1st Place
-
9.15SUNY Maritime College0.764.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Chisari | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Gavula | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Collin Porter | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 5.3% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 14.1% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Brook Wood | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 10.1% | 11.5% | 13.1% | 13.2% |
| Madeleine Rice | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 41.6% |
| Cooper Delbridge | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 16.4% | 14.1% |
| Will Donovan | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
| Connor Bennett | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Griffin Sisk | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 8.0% |
| Thomas Green | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| John Vail | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.