← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Fordham University1.94+4.35vs Predicted
-
2University of Pennsylvania1.45+4.79vs Predicted
-
3University of Pennsylvania1.60+3.59vs Predicted
-
4Fordham University0.64+5.41vs Predicted
-
5Cornell University1.68+0.56vs Predicted
-
6Palm Beach Atlantic University1.26+1.42vs Predicted
-
7SUNY Maritime College0.76+2.36vs Predicted
-
8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-1.31vs Predicted
-
9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.78+0.14vs Predicted
-
10Fordham University1.18-2.18vs Predicted
-
11Fordham University1.50-4.38vs Predicted
-
12Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56-2.05vs Predicted
-
13University of Pennsylvania1.58-6.51vs Predicted
-
14SUNY Maritime College-0.27-1.62vs Predicted
-
15Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.41-4.57vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.35Fordham University1.9413.3%1st Place
-
6.79University of Pennsylvania1.457.8%1st Place
-
6.59University of Pennsylvania1.609.6%1st Place
-
9.41Fordham University0.643.9%1st Place
-
5.56Cornell University1.6812.3%1st Place
-
7.42Palm Beach Atlantic University1.266.8%1st Place
-
9.36SUNY Maritime College0.763.5%1st Place
-
6.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.558.6%1st Place
-
9.14Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.783.7%1st Place
-
7.82Fordham University1.186.2%1st Place
-
6.62Fordham University1.507.8%1st Place
-
9.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.563.9%1st Place
-
6.49University of Pennsylvania1.588.9%1st Place
-
12.38SUNY Maritime College-0.271.4%1st Place
-
10.43Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.412.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lobaugh | 13.3% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Madeleine Rice | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Samuel Gavula | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 0.7% |
| Griffin Sisk | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 8.5% |
| J.J. Smith | 12.3% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Thomas Green | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| John Vail | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 7.3% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Collin Porter | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 7.0% |
| Will Donovan | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% |
| Connor Bennett | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Brook Wood | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 14.3% | 12.2% |
| Cole Woodworth | 8.9% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 16.7% | 40.8% |
| Cooper Delbridge | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 15.6% | 14.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.