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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.45+5.88vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.60+4.71vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.78+5.96vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.68+1.72vs Predicted
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5Palm Beach Atlantic University1.26+2.62vs Predicted
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6Fordham University0.64+3.37vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.41+3.37vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.50-1.19vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56+1.05vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-3.52vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College-0.27+1.25vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.18-4.17vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.76-3.89vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.58-7.50vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.94-9.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.88University of Pennsylvania1.458.2%1st Place
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6.71University of Pennsylvania1.606.8%1st Place
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8.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.785.2%1st Place
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5.72Cornell University1.6811.4%1st Place
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7.62Palm Beach Atlantic University1.266.3%1st Place
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9.37Fordham University0.644.3%1st Place
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10.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.413.0%1st Place
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6.81Fordham University1.508.6%1st Place
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10.05Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.563.6%1st Place
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6.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.559.8%1st Place
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12.25SUNY Maritime College-0.271.1%1st Place
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7.83Fordham University1.185.9%1st Place
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9.11SUNY Maritime College0.764.7%1st Place
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6.5University of Pennsylvania1.589.1%1st Place
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5.36Fordham University1.9411.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madeleine Rice | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Samuel Gavula | 6.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Collin Porter | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 5.9% |
| J.J. Smith | 11.4% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Thomas Green | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Griffin Sisk | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 8.2% |
| Cooper Delbridge | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 15.1% | 16.3% |
| Connor Bennett | 8.6% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Brook Wood | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 13.7% | 12.2% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 15.5% | 40.8% |
| Will Donovan | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 2.9% |
| John Vail | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 6.6% |
| Cole Woodworth | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.1% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 11.9% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.