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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.68+4.59vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.45+5.03vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.78+6.10vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.94+1.46vs Predicted
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5Palm Beach Atlantic University1.26+2.58vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.60+0.63vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.55-0.54vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.58-1.53vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.41+1.35vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.18-2.10vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.50-4.28vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College0.76-2.84vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56-2.97vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College-0.27-1.82vs Predicted
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15Fordham University0.64-5.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.59Cornell University1.6812.5%1st Place
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7.03University of Pennsylvania1.458.8%1st Place
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9.1Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.784.0%1st Place
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5.46Fordham University1.9413.2%1st Place
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7.58Palm Beach Atlantic University1.265.9%1st Place
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6.63University of Pennsylvania1.609.7%1st Place
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6.46U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.558.8%1st Place
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6.47University of Pennsylvania1.588.2%1st Place
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10.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.412.6%1st Place
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7.9Fordham University1.186.3%1st Place
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6.72Fordham University1.507.9%1st Place
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9.16SUNY Maritime College0.763.9%1st Place
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10.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.563.6%1st Place
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12.18SUNY Maritime College-0.270.9%1st Place
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9.36Fordham University0.643.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Smith | 12.5% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Madeleine Rice | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Collin Porter | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 8.1% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 13.2% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Green | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| Samuel Gavula | 9.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Jack Vanderhorst | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Cole Woodworth | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Cooper Delbridge | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 14.4% |
| Will Donovan | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 2.9% |
| Connor Bennett | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| John Vail | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 6.9% |
| Brook Wood | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 14.0% | 13.0% |
| Isabelle Gautier | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 10.1% | 14.9% | 39.1% |
| Griffin Sisk | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.8% | 8.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.