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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.19+3.15vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania3.16+2.19vs Predicted
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3Fordham University2.65+2.70vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University2.21+3.09vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.45+1.21vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.51+0.23vs Predicted
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7Drexel University1.64+1.93vs Predicted
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8Monmouth University1.95-0.27vs Predicted
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9Stevens Institute of Technology1.48+0.52vs Predicted
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10Washington College2.71-4.55vs Predicted
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11Rutgers University0.75+0.74vs Predicted
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12Penn State University1.35-2.20vs Predicted
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13Villanova University1.30-2.96vs Predicted
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15Columbia University-0.31-0.57vs Predicted
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16University of Maryland/Baltimore County0.24-2.97vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.09-3.51vs Predicted
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18University of Delaware-0.75-2.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.15St. Mary's College of Maryland3.190.2%1st Place
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4.19University of Pennsylvania3.160.2%1st Place
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5.7Fordham University2.650.1%1st Place
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7.09Christopher Newport University2.210.1%1st Place
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6.21Washington College2.450.1%1st Place
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6.23U. S. Naval Academy2.510.1%1st Place
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8.93Drexel University1.640.0%1st Place
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7.73Monmouth University1.950.1%1st Place
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9.52Stevens Institute of Technology1.480.0%1st Place
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5.45Washington College2.710.1%1st Place
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11.74Rutgers University0.750.0%1st Place
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9.8Penn State University1.350.0%1st Place
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10.04Villanova University1.300.0%1st Place
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14.43Columbia University-0.310.0%1st Place
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13.03University of Maryland/Baltimore County0.240.0%1st Place
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13.49Princeton University0.090.0%1st Place
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15.27University of Delaware-0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Garber | 18.6% | 15.1% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 17.1% | 16.1% | 13.7% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Tell | 9.2% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Austin Powers | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Eric Siegel | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Peck | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Myers | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Paul Stevens | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Carabelli | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Charles Nunn | 10.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Courtney Williams | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 15.1% | 14.4% | 9.2% | 3.6% |
| John Shanahan | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Lindsey Press | 2.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Josiah Hyatt | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 15.1% | 25.8% | 25.4% |
| Adam Rybczynski | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 19.2% | 16.6% | 9.9% |
| Sarah Gross | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 17.2% | 17.9% | 14.2% |
| Teddy Straus | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 20.5% | 44.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.