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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.06+3.58vs Predicted
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2U. S. Military Academy2.05+2.42vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.18+4.61vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College1.95+0.99vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College1.08+2.93vs Predicted
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6Northwestern University1.49+0.42vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College0.50+2.84vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.26-0.56vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.43-2.57vs Predicted
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10Maine Maritime Academy0.21+0.42vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.72-1.97vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island1.05-4.27vs Predicted
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13Bates College-0.33-1.10vs Predicted
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14University of New Hampshire0.68-4.92vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.38-2.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.58Bowdoin College2.0615.1%1st Place
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4.42U. S. Military Academy2.0517.4%1st Place
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7.61Dartmouth College1.185.4%1st Place
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4.99Dartmouth College1.9514.1%1st Place
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7.93Bowdoin College1.085.5%1st Place
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6.42Northwestern University1.498.3%1st Place
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9.84Bowdoin College0.502.6%1st Place
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7.44Northeastern University1.266.3%1st Place
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6.43Tufts University1.437.8%1st Place
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10.42Maine Maritime Academy0.212.2%1st Place
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9.03University of Vermont0.723.5%1st Place
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7.73University of Rhode Island1.055.4%1st Place
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11.9Bates College-0.331.5%1st Place
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9.08University of New Hampshire0.684.1%1st Place
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12.19University of New Hampshire-0.380.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 15.1% | 15.1% | 12.3% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| James Paul | 17.4% | 14.1% | 14.9% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Hurley | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 14.1% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Chance | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Shea Smith | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Alex Kitay | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 9.0% |
| Sam Monaghan | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% |
| Jack Flores | 7.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Lochlann Ludwig | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 13.2% | 14.5% | 11.7% |
| Ryan Potter | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 4.2% |
| Adam Strobridge | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Harry Stevenson | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 12.4% | 18.8% | 28.6% |
| Grace Cannon | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 5.8% |
| Sean Lund | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 19.4% | 32.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.