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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Military Academy2.05+3.48vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.06+2.59vs Predicted
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3Northwestern University1.49+3.37vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.43+2.50vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.26+2.42vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College1.18+1.63vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College1.95-1.84vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.05-0.24vs Predicted
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9University of New Hampshire0.68+0.18vs Predicted
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10Bates College-0.33+1.76vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College0.50-1.30vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College1.08-4.04vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.72-4.00vs Predicted
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14Maine Maritime Academy0.21-3.47vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.38-3.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.48U. S. Military Academy2.0516.2%1st Place
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4.59Bowdoin College2.0615.8%1st Place
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6.37Northwestern University1.498.1%1st Place
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6.5Tufts University1.438.8%1st Place
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7.42Northeastern University1.265.4%1st Place
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7.63Dartmouth College1.185.8%1st Place
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5.16Dartmouth College1.9513.0%1st Place
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7.76University of Rhode Island1.054.5%1st Place
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9.18University of New Hampshire0.683.8%1st Place
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11.76Bates College-0.331.5%1st Place
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9.7Bowdoin College0.503.8%1st Place
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7.96Bowdoin College1.085.7%1st Place
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9.0University of Vermont0.723.9%1st Place
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10.53Maine Maritime Academy0.212.1%1st Place
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11.96University of New Hampshire-0.381.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Paul | 16.2% | 14.2% | 15.1% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 15.8% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Shea Smith | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Jack Flores | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Sam Monaghan | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Nicholas Hurley | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 13.0% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Adam Strobridge | 4.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
| Grace Cannon | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 5.1% |
| Harry Stevenson | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 11.0% | 17.5% | 29.2% |
| Alex Kitay | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 8.6% |
| Jonathan Chance | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
| Ryan Potter | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 4.7% |
| Lochlann Ludwig | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 12.4% | 14.9% | 13.2% |
| Sean Lund | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 18.9% | 31.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.