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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.06+3.51vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College1.08+5.94vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.95+2.09vs Predicted
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4Northwestern University1.49+2.45vs Predicted
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5U. S. Military Academy2.05-0.46vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College0.50+3.70vs Predicted
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7Maine Maritime Academy0.21+3.40vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.43-1.72vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.26-1.52vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.05-2.22vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire0.68-1.88vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College1.18-4.24vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.72-4.15vs Predicted
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14Bates College-0.33-2.11vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.38-2.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.51Bowdoin College2.0615.5%1st Place
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7.94Bowdoin College1.084.7%1st Place
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5.09Dartmouth College1.9513.2%1st Place
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6.45Northwestern University1.498.6%1st Place
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4.54U. S. Military Academy2.0516.0%1st Place
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9.7Bowdoin College0.503.8%1st Place
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10.4Maine Maritime Academy0.212.0%1st Place
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6.28Tufts University1.438.5%1st Place
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7.48Northeastern University1.265.9%1st Place
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7.78University of Rhode Island1.055.0%1st Place
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9.12University of New Hampshire0.684.1%1st Place
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7.76Dartmouth College1.186.8%1st Place
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8.85University of Vermont0.723.4%1st Place
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11.89Bates College-0.331.5%1st Place
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12.21University of New Hampshire-0.381.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 15.5% | 15.7% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Chance | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 1.7% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 13.2% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Shea Smith | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| James Paul | 16.0% | 14.2% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Alex Kitay | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 8.6% |
| Lochlann Ludwig | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 12.4% | 15.7% | 11.8% |
| Jack Flores | 8.5% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Sam Monaghan | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Adam Strobridge | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| Grace Cannon | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 5.3% |
| Nicholas Hurley | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 1.4% |
| Ryan Potter | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 4.2% |
| Harry Stevenson | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 17.6% | 28.8% |
| Sean Lund | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 11.3% | 18.9% | 33.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.