← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Dartmouth College1.95+4.24vs Predicted
-
2Bowdoin College2.06+2.59vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Military Academy2.05+1.56vs Predicted
-
4Bowdoin College0.50+5.97vs Predicted
-
5University of New Hampshire-0.38+7.20vs Predicted
-
6Tufts University1.43+0.63vs Predicted
-
7Northwestern University1.49-0.53vs Predicted
-
8Northeastern University1.26-0.21vs Predicted
-
9Bowdoin College1.08-0.78vs Predicted
-
10University of Vermont0.72-0.76vs Predicted
-
11University of New Hampshire0.68-1.40vs Predicted
-
12University of Rhode Island1.05-4.03vs Predicted
-
13Dartmouth College1.18-5.28vs Predicted
-
14Maine Maritime Academy0.21-3.29vs Predicted
-
15Bates College0.67-5.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.24Dartmouth College1.9512.8%1st Place
-
4.59Bowdoin College2.0615.8%1st Place
-
4.56U. S. Military Academy2.0514.7%1st Place
-
9.97Bowdoin College0.503.7%1st Place
-
12.2University of New Hampshire-0.380.9%1st Place
-
6.63Tufts University1.437.6%1st Place
-
6.47Northwestern University1.498.8%1st Place
-
7.79Northeastern University1.265.8%1st Place
-
8.22Bowdoin College1.084.8%1st Place
-
9.24University of Vermont0.724.0%1st Place
-
9.6University of New Hampshire0.683.5%1st Place
-
7.97University of Rhode Island1.055.5%1st Place
-
7.72Dartmouth College1.186.2%1st Place
-
10.71Maine Maritime Academy0.211.8%1st Place
-
9.07Bates College0.673.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Hurwitz | 12.8% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 15.8% | 15.2% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| James Paul | 14.7% | 15.8% | 14.0% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Alex Kitay | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 13.7% | 11.8% |
| Sean Lund | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 14.8% | 37.9% |
| Jack Flores | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Shea Smith | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Sam Monaghan | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Jonathan Chance | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 2.9% |
| Ryan Potter | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 6.8% |
| Grace Cannon | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 8.5% |
| Adam Strobridge | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 2.5% |
| Nicholas Hurley | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| Lochlann Ludwig | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 17.5% |
| Ted Lutton | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.