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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Military Academy2.05+3.63vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University1.49+4.61vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.95+2.06vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College1.18+3.85vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.06-0.34vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.26+1.78vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.43-0.34vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College1.08+0.08vs Predicted
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9Bates College0.67-0.03vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.72-0.71vs Predicted
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11Maine Maritime Academy0.21-0.34vs Predicted
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12University of New Hampshire0.68-2.60vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island1.05-5.06vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College0.50-3.88vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.38-2.72vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.63U. S. Military Academy2.0515.2%1st Place
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6.61Northwestern University1.498.1%1st Place
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5.06Dartmouth College1.9513.4%1st Place
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7.85Dartmouth College1.185.2%1st Place
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4.66Bowdoin College2.0616.1%1st Place
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7.78Northeastern University1.265.2%1st Place
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6.66Tufts University1.438.7%1st Place
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8.08Bowdoin College1.086.1%1st Place
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8.97Bates College0.673.8%1st Place
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9.29University of Vermont0.723.8%1st Place
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10.66Maine Maritime Academy0.212.2%1st Place
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9.4University of New Hampshire0.683.2%1st Place
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7.94University of Rhode Island1.055.1%1st Place
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10.12Bowdoin College0.502.6%1st Place
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12.28University of New Hampshire-0.381.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
James Paul | 15.2% | 13.8% | 14.5% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Shea Smith | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
Oliver Hurwitz | 13.4% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Nicholas Hurley | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
Sam Bonauto | 16.1% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Sam Monaghan | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
Jack Flores | 8.7% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
Jonathan Chance | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 2.6% |
Ted Lutton | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 5.7% |
Ryan Potter | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 7.0% |
Lochlann Ludwig | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 16.4% | 16.0% |
Grace Cannon | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.4% |
Adam Strobridge | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 2.5% |
Alex Kitay | 2.6% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 11.1% |
Sean Lund | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 15.2% | 41.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.