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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Military Academy2.05+3.60vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.06+2.63vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College1.95+2.21vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College1.08+4.03vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University1.49+1.41vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College1.18+1.81vs Predicted
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7Tufts University1.43-0.34vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College0.50+2.28vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.72+0.17vs Predicted
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10Maine Maritime Academy0.21+0.81vs Predicted
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11University of New Hampshire0.68-1.58vs Predicted
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12Bates College0.67-3.00vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.26-5.41vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.05-6.04vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-0.38-2.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.6U. S. Military Academy2.0516.8%1st Place
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4.63Bowdoin College2.0615.3%1st Place
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5.21Dartmouth College1.9512.9%1st Place
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8.03Bowdoin College1.085.4%1st Place
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6.41Northwestern University1.497.5%1st Place
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7.81Dartmouth College1.185.3%1st Place
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6.66Tufts University1.437.2%1st Place
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10.28Bowdoin College0.502.4%1st Place
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9.17University of Vermont0.724.0%1st Place
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10.81Maine Maritime Academy0.211.9%1st Place
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9.42University of New Hampshire0.684.2%1st Place
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9.0Bates College0.674.3%1st Place
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7.59Northeastern University1.265.9%1st Place
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7.96University of Rhode Island1.055.7%1st Place
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12.44University of New Hampshire-0.381.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Paul | 16.8% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 15.3% | 15.0% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 12.9% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jonathan Chance | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Shea Smith | 7.5% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Nicholas Hurley | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Jack Flores | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Alex Kitay | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 11.6% | 14.8% | 11.9% |
| Ryan Potter | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 7.1% |
| Lochlann Ludwig | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 16.5% | 16.2% |
| Grace Cannon | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 7.2% |
| Ted Lutton | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.0% |
| Sam Monaghan | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Adam Strobridge | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 2.2% |
| Sean Lund | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 15.9% | 41.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.