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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College1.71+3.69vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College0.78+4.77vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.51+2.66vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.22-0.55vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College1.84-0.54vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.20+0.12vs Predicted
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7University of New Hampshire0.10+2.53vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College0.87-0.99vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University0.73-1.28vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College-0.52+1.09vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.56-3.22vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College-0.27-1.47vs Predicted
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13Maine Maritime Academy-0.31-2.34vs Predicted
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14Bates College-0.67-2.24vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-1.22-2.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.69Dartmouth College1.7113.3%1st Place
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6.77Bowdoin College0.786.0%1st Place
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5.66Tufts University1.519.5%1st Place
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3.45Tufts University2.2223.2%1st Place
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4.46Bowdoin College1.8415.1%1st Place
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6.12University of Rhode Island1.207.0%1st Place
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9.53University of New Hampshire0.102.6%1st Place
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7.01Dartmouth College0.875.9%1st Place
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7.72Northeastern University0.735.2%1st Place
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11.09Bowdoin College-0.521.4%1st Place
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7.78University of Vermont0.565.1%1st Place
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10.53Dartmouth College-0.271.9%1st Place
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10.66Maine Maritime Academy-0.311.9%1st Place
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11.76Bates College-0.670.9%1st Place
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12.75University of New Hampshire-1.220.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bella casaretto | 13.3% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Teagan Cunningham | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Connor Rosow | 9.5% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 23.2% | 19.4% | 15.7% | 13.2% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Russler | 15.1% | 13.9% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Max Sigel | 7.0% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Harris | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 8.9% | 3.6% |
| Madeline Koelbel | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Liam Lawless | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Charlie Apolinsky | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 11.8% | 14.5% | 17.2% | 14.1% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Rob Mailley | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 8.9% |
| Griffen Horne | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 14.9% | 13.1% | 10.8% |
| Amanda Yolles | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 20.4% | 19.8% |
| Charles Wheeler | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 17.8% | 40.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.