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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College1.84+3.53vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College0.36+6.87vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.20+3.12vs Predicted
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4University of New Hampshire0.10+5.70vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College1.71-0.26vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.51-0.05vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.22-3.39vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College0.78-0.99vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College0.87-1.61vs Predicted
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10Maine Maritime Academy-0.31+0.63vs Predicted
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11University of Michigan0.50-3.20vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University0.73-4.27vs Predicted
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13Bates College-0.67-1.31vs Predicted
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14Bowdoin College-0.52-2.76vs Predicted
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15University of New Hampshire-1.22-2.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.53Bowdoin College1.8415.4%1st Place
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8.87Dartmouth College0.363.0%1st Place
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6.12University of Rhode Island1.208.3%1st Place
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9.7University of New Hampshire0.102.4%1st Place
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4.74Dartmouth College1.7113.1%1st Place
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5.95Tufts University1.518.6%1st Place
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3.61Tufts University2.2221.8%1st Place
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7.01Bowdoin College0.786.2%1st Place
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7.39Dartmouth College0.875.1%1st Place
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10.63Maine Maritime Academy-0.311.8%1st Place
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7.8University of Michigan0.504.9%1st Place
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7.73Northeastern University0.735.2%1st Place
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11.69Bates College-0.671.3%1st Place
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11.24Bowdoin College-0.521.8%1st Place
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13.0University of New Hampshire-1.220.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Russler | 15.4% | 14.3% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Vogel | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 1.8% |
| Max Sigel | 8.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Sam Harris | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 4.8% |
| bella casaretto | 13.1% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Rosow | 8.6% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 21.8% | 20.5% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Teagan Cunningham | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Madeline Koelbel | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Griffen Horne | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 16.5% | 10.1% |
| Anna Olsen | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Liam Lawless | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Amanda Yolles | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 11.7% | 14.8% | 20.2% | 20.2% |
| Charlie Apolinsky | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 11.9% | 16.1% | 18.6% | 14.4% |
| Charles Wheeler | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 17.3% | 45.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.