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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College1.84+3.60vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.22+1.62vs Predicted
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3University of New Hampshire0.10+6.72vs Predicted
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4Tufts University1.51+1.82vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College0.36+3.81vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College-0.52+5.34vs Predicted
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7Dartmouth College0.87+0.25vs Predicted
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8Bowdoin College0.78-1.14vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan0.50-1.17vs Predicted
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10Maine Maritime Academy-0.31+0.78vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island1.20-4.74vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College1.71-7.24vs Predicted
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13University of New Hampshire-1.22-0.14vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University0.73-6.19vs Predicted
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15Bates College-0.67-3.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.6Bowdoin College1.8415.7%1st Place
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3.62Tufts University2.2222.4%1st Place
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9.72University of New Hampshire0.102.3%1st Place
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5.82Tufts University1.519.4%1st Place
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8.81Dartmouth College0.364.2%1st Place
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11.34Bowdoin College-0.521.9%1st Place
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7.25Dartmouth College0.875.9%1st Place
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6.86Bowdoin College0.786.7%1st Place
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7.83University of Michigan0.504.2%1st Place
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10.78Maine Maritime Academy-0.311.2%1st Place
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6.26University of Rhode Island1.207.9%1st Place
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4.76Dartmouth College1.7113.0%1st Place
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12.86University of New Hampshire-1.220.7%1st Place
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7.81Northeastern University0.733.4%1st Place
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11.7Bates College-0.671.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Russler | 15.7% | 12.7% | 12.5% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 22.4% | 20.2% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Sam Harris | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 4.0% |
| Connor Rosow | 9.4% | 8.5% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Connor Vogel | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 6.5% | 3.0% |
| Charlie Apolinsky | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.6% | 15.2% | 19.7% | 14.9% |
| Madeline Koelbel | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Teagan Cunningham | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Anna Olsen | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Griffen Horne | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 16.8% | 10.5% |
| Max Sigel | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| bella casaretto | 13.0% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Wheeler | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 10.5% | 18.4% | 43.1% |
| Liam Lawless | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Amanda Yolles | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 19.1% | 21.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.