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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+7.98vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.80+5.72vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.77+9.10vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.12+6.20vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College2.96+5.90vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.23+3.91vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island3.84+0.29vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27+1.64vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.49-0.29vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont3.270.00vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.79-3.31vs Predicted
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12Boston College4.01-5.07vs Predicted
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13Stanford University3.27-3.48vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.35-0.87vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.74-3.10vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan3.02-5.17vs Predicted
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17Tufts University3.73-9.10vs Predicted
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18Boston University3.70-10.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.98St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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7.72Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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12.1Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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10.2College of Charleston3.120.0%1st Place
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10.9Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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9.91Brown University3.230.0%1st Place
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7.29University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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9.64Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.0%1st Place
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8.71Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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10.0University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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7.69Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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6.93Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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9.52Stanford University3.270.1%1st Place
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13.13Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
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11.9Bowdoin College2.740.0%1st Place
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10.83University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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7.9Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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7.64Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Edegran | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.3% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| Henry Vogel | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 13.2% | 12.3% |
| Jack Jorgensen | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 8.4% |
| Tyler Rice | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% |
| Rachel Bryer | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% |
| David Larson | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.0% |
| Scott Houck | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% |
| Michael Booker | 5.6% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Erika Reineke | 9.8% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% |
| Sarah Mace | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% |
| Matthew Schofield | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 23.7% |
| Tom Peabody | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 13.0% |
| Ryan Seago | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.1% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Ryan Astwood | 8.0% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.