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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
5.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.12+9.48vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.27+7.91vs Predicted
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3Boston University3.70+5.10vs Predicted
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4Boston College4.01+2.57vs Predicted
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5University of Michigan3.02+5.68vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.27+3.74vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+1.74vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27+1.62vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.35+4.46vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College2.74+2.15vs Predicted
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11Harvard University3.79-3.28vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.77+0.19vs Predicted
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13Yale University3.80-5.60vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.23-4.48vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.96-4.05vs Predicted
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16Tufts University3.73-8.17vs Predicted
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17University of Rhode Island3.84-9.59vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College3.49-9.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.48College of Charleston3.120.0%1st Place
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9.91Stanford University3.270.0%1st Place
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8.1Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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6.57Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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10.68University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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9.74University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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8.74St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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9.62Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
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13.46Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
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12.15Bowdoin College2.740.0%1st Place
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7.72Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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12.19Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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7.4Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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9.52Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
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10.95Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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7.83Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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7.41University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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8.54Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jorgensen | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.6% |
| Sarah Mace | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 3.2% |
| Ryan Astwood | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Erika Reineke | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Seago | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 9.3% | 7.8% |
| Michael Booker | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% |
| Markus Edegran | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% |
| David Larson | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% |
| Matthew Schofield | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 13.5% | 26.2% |
| Tom Peabody | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 12.7% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| Henry Vogel | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 14.5% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Tyler Rice | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 3.8% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 7.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Rachel Bryer | 9.3% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Scott Houck | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.