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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+8.00vs Predicted
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2Bowdoin College2.74+10.21vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.77+9.08vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.84+3.23vs Predicted
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5Tufts University3.73+2.70vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.49+2.70vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont3.27+2.68vs Predicted
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8Yale University3.80-0.61vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan3.02+1.74vs Predicted
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10Boston University3.70-1.89vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.23-1.01vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston3.12-1.32vs Predicted
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13Boston College4.01-6.52vs Predicted
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14Cornell University2.35-0.90vs Predicted
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15Harvard University3.79-7.57vs Predicted
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16Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27-6.16vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.96-5.80vs Predicted
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18Stanford University3.27-8.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.0St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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12.21Bowdoin College2.740.0%1st Place
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12.08Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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7.23University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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7.7Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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8.7Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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9.68University of Vermont3.270.0%1st Place
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7.39Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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10.74University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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8.11Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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9.99Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
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10.68College of Charleston3.120.0%1st Place
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6.48Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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13.1Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
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7.43Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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9.84Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.0%1st Place
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11.2Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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9.45Stanford University3.270.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Edegran | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 2.3% |
| Tom Peabody | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 14.0% |
| Henry Vogel | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 13.5% |
| Rachel Bryer | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| Scott Houck | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| Michael Booker | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 3.7% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 7.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Ryan Seago | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 5.0% |
| Ryan Astwood | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Tyler Rice | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.1% |
| Jack Jorgensen | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.3% |
| Erika Reineke | 10.5% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Matthew Schofield | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 12.0% | 24.9% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| David Larson | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.8% |
| Sarah Mace | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.