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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.77+10.95vs Predicted
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2University of Michigan3.02+9.04vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+6.04vs Predicted
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4Tufts University3.73+3.70vs Predicted
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5Stanford University3.27+4.60vs Predicted
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6Boston College4.01+0.58vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont3.27+2.75vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.12+2.24vs Predicted
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9Harvard University3.79-1.54vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.35+3.60vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College3.49-2.08vs Predicted
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12Brown University3.23-1.75vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.74-1.27vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island3.84-6.97vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27-5.36vs Predicted
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16Boston University3.70-8.05vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.96-5.79vs Predicted
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18Yale University3.80-10.71vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.95Roger Williams University2.770.0%1st Place
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11.04University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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9.04St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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7.7Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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9.6Stanford University3.270.0%1st Place
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6.58Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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9.75University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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10.24College of Charleston3.120.0%1st Place
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7.46Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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13.6Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
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8.92Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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10.25Brown University3.230.0%1st Place
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11.73Bowdoin College2.740.0%1st Place
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7.03University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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9.64Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.0%1st Place
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7.95Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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11.21Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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7.29Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henry Vogel | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 14.1% |
| Ryan Seago | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 5.7% |
| Markus Edegran | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.0% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| Sarah Mace | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.2% |
| Erika Reineke | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Michael Booker | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% |
| Jack Jorgensen | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.1% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 7.2% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Matthew Schofield | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 28.1% |
| Scott Houck | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.3% |
| Tyler Rice | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% |
| Tom Peabody | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 12.0% |
| Rachel Bryer | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| David Larson | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Ryan Astwood | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 9.0% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.