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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.49+7.90vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.79+5.65vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+5.95vs Predicted
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4Boston University3.70+3.79vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27+4.60vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan3.02+4.78vs Predicted
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7Boston College4.01-0.41vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.12+2.22vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont3.27+0.69vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.27-0.04vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.96+0.15vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.84-4.41vs Predicted
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13Bowdoin College2.74-1.32vs Predicted
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14Yale University3.80-6.87vs Predicted
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15Cornell University2.35-1.64vs Predicted
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16Tufts University3.73-8.21vs Predicted
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17Brown University3.23-7.03vs Predicted
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18Roger Williams University2.62-5.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.9Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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7.65Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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8.95St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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7.79Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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9.6Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.0%1st Place
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10.78University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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6.59Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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10.22College of Charleston3.120.0%1st Place
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9.69University of Vermont3.270.0%1st Place
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9.96Stanford University3.270.1%1st Place
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11.15Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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7.59University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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11.68Bowdoin College2.740.0%1st Place
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7.13Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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13.36Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
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7.79Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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9.97Brown University3.230.1%1st Place
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12.18Roger Williams University2.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Houck | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Markus Edegran | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| Ryan Astwood | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
| David Larson | 4.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% |
| Ryan Seago | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.7% |
| Erika Reineke | 9.9% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Jack Jorgensen | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 5.4% |
| Michael Booker | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% |
| Sarah Mace | 5.8% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.9% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 9.5% |
| Rachel Bryer | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Tom Peabody | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 12.4% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 8.5% | 10.5% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Schofield | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 25.1% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Tyler Rice | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 4.2% |
| A. Tucker Atterbury | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 12.0% | 13.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.