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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.73+6.97vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+6.93vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.49+6.00vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.23+5.72vs Predicted
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5Yale University3.80+2.37vs Predicted
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6Boston College4.01+0.58vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.79+0.49vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.62+4.26vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College2.74+2.92vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.35+3.61vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont3.27-1.11vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.84-4.40vs Predicted
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13College of Charleston3.12-2.83vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27-4.62vs Predicted
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15Boston University3.70-7.25vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.96-4.94vs Predicted
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17Stanford University3.27-7.22vs Predicted
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18University of Michigan3.02-7.47vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.97Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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8.93St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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9.0Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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9.72Brown University3.230.0%1st Place
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7.37Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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6.58Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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7.49Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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12.26Roger Williams University2.620.0%1st Place
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11.92Bowdoin College2.740.0%1st Place
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13.61Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
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9.89University of Vermont3.270.1%1st Place
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7.6University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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10.17College of Charleston3.120.0%1st Place
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9.38Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.0%1st Place
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7.75Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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11.06Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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9.78Stanford University3.270.1%1st Place
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10.53University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Markus Edegran | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% |
| Scott Houck | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Tyler Rice | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 8.7% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Erika Reineke | 10.6% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| A. Tucker Atterbury | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 16.3% |
| Tom Peabody | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 11.3% |
| Matthew Schofield | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 27.3% |
| Michael Booker | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Rachel Bryer | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Jack Jorgensen | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.8% |
| David Larson | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| Ryan Astwood | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 9.4% |
| Sarah Mace | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 3.1% |
| Ryan Seago | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.