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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont3.27+8.92vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.80+5.60vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.27+6.89vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College2.96+6.86vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.01+1.58vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49+2.70vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.62+5.37vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.35+5.30vs Predicted
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9Boston University3.70-1.21vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.79-2.29vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27-1.15vs Predicted
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12University of Michigan3.02-0.91vs Predicted
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13Tufts University3.73-5.44vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.12-3.97vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island3.84-7.79vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College3.49-7.17vs Predicted
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17Brown University3.23-7.02vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College2.74-6.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.92University of Vermont3.270.0%1st Place
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7.6Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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9.89Stanford University3.270.0%1st Place
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10.86Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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6.58Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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8.7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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12.37Roger Williams University2.620.0%1st Place
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13.3Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
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7.79Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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7.71Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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9.85Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
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11.09University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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7.56Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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10.03College of Charleston3.120.0%1st Place
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7.21University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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8.83Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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9.98Brown University3.230.0%1st Place
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11.74Bowdoin College2.740.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Booker | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.8% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Sarah Mace | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.3% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% |
| Erika Reineke | 10.5% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Markus Edegran | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% |
| A. Tucker Atterbury | 3.3% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 14.0% |
| Matthew Schofield | 2.3% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 12.7% | 26.5% |
| Ryan Astwood | 6.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 9.0% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 0.5% |
| David Larson | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 4.1% |
| Ryan Seago | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.1% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| Jack Jorgensen | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% |
| Rachel Bryer | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Scott Houck | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.2% |
| Tyler Rice | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 3.9% |
| Tom Peabody | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 11.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.