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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.12+9.49vs Predicted
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2Boston College4.01+4.72vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.84+4.44vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.27+5.52vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.49+3.70vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.79+1.47vs Predicted
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7Cornell University2.35+6.38vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.27+1.60vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.80-1.61vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan3.02+1.04vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.49-2.11vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.73-3.87vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.96-2.19vs Predicted
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14Boston University3.70-6.45vs Predicted
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15Brown University3.23-5.18vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.62-3.49vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.74-4.96vs Predicted
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18Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27-8.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.49College of Charleston3.120.0%1st Place
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6.72Boston College4.010.1%1st Place
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7.44University of Rhode Island3.840.1%1st Place
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9.52Stanford University3.270.1%1st Place
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8.7Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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7.47Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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13.38Cornell University2.350.0%1st Place
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9.6University of Vermont3.270.0%1st Place
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7.39Yale University3.800.1%1st Place
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11.04University of Michigan3.020.0%1st Place
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8.89St. Mary's College of Maryland3.490.1%1st Place
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8.13Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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10.81Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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7.55Boston University3.700.1%1st Place
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9.82Brown University3.230.0%1st Place
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12.51Roger Williams University2.620.0%1st Place
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12.04Bowdoin College2.740.0%1st Place
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9.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Jorgensen | 4.6% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% |
| Erika Reineke | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Rachel Bryer | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Sarah Mace | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 3.9% |
| Scott Houck | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 1.6% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Matthew Schofield | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 11.4% | 16.4% | 22.6% |
| Michael Booker | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% |
| Christopher Segerblom | 7.2% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Seago | 4.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% |
| Markus Edegran | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Jordan Bothwick | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.7% |
| Ryan Astwood | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Tyler Rice | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.6% |
| A. Tucker Atterbury | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 17.3% |
| Tom Peabody | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 14.6% |
| David Larson | 5.2% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.