Race 4B

lake-champlain-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

60.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Ian Storck 13.3% 12.1% 11.5% 12.2% 9.8% 9.1% 7.1% 8.8% 6.3% 3.9% 2.7% 1.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Ryan Schmitz 7.9% 9.1% 9.9% 9.8% 9.4% 9.6% 9.3% 9.0% 7.8% 7.6% 4.7% 3.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1%
William Crary 9.6% 8.3% 10.6% 10.0% 7.4% 10.8% 9.1% 9.8% 9.5% 5.8% 4.6% 2.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Conor Lodge 9.0% 9.0% 9.3% 7.9% 9.7% 9.4% 9.2% 8.9% 7.7% 8.4% 6.0% 2.8% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Michael Saldi 8.7% 10.3% 9.0% 8.9% 9.6% 10.8% 10.0% 10.1% 5.5% 6.4% 6.1% 3.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1%
Dan Nickerson 14.8% 14.3% 14.4% 12.3% 11.8% 8.2% 8.4% 5.2% 5.3% 2.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Philip Koch 4.5% 3.6% 3.2% 4.7% 5.1% 4.6% 6.9% 8.0% 9.8% 9.6% 12.1% 11.3% 9.3% 5.2% 2.1%
John Silvestri 5.7% 5.7% 6.1% 7.0% 8.5% 8.6% 7.3% 8.5% 10.3% 11.0% 8.6% 7.0% 3.9% 1.3% 0.5%
Christina Frost 4.4% 4.3% 5.6% 6.8% 7.3% 6.6% 9.3% 7.3% 10.7% 10.4% 11.0% 8.4% 5.2% 2.1% 0.6%
Samuel Scribner 2.3% 2.8% 2.2% 3.2% 3.5% 5.5% 4.7% 6.8% 6.9% 10.4% 11.8% 13.5% 13.6% 8.1% 4.7%
Matt Palardy 1.0% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 2.2% 1.4% 3.7% 3.5% 4.8% 6.5% 7.3% 12.4% 15.8% 17.6% 19.6%
IG Schottlaender 16.1% 15.7% 14.2% 11.4% 9.7% 9.5% 8.6% 6.0% 4.7% 1.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Zachary Karakouzian 0.6% 1.1% 0.7% 1.7% 2.3% 1.7% 1.7% 3.5% 3.4% 4.1% 7.2% 11.2% 16.2% 20.7% 23.9%
Meghan Colwell 0.8% 0.8% 1.3% 0.9% 1.3% 2.7% 1.8% 2.5% 3.6% 6.1% 7.6% 10.4% 12.9% 22.5% 24.8%
John Bishara 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 2.0% 2.4% 1.5% 2.9% 2.1% 3.7% 5.1% 7.0% 10.5% 15.4% 20.8% 23.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.