Race 3A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Oliver Stokke 18.8% 18.2% 14.8% 14.4% 11.9% 9.8% 6.5% 3.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Ryan Potter 5.1% 5.5% 6.2% 7.0% 8.3% 10.7% 11.0% 14.1% 15.0% 10.8% 4.8% 1.2% 0.0%
Jack Derry 8.2% 8.6% 10.2% 11.5% 11.7% 11.8% 11.8% 11.7% 8.3% 4.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Grant Adam 9.8% 11.1% 13.2% 11.3% 12.0% 12.4% 11.1% 9.2% 6.8% 2.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Emil Tullberg 4.2% 5.2% 6.1% 6.7% 8.6% 10.2% 11.6% 13.0% 17.2% 10.9% 4.8% 1.4% 0.1%
Luke Zylinski 4.9% 5.3% 6.3% 7.2% 7.5% 10.0% 12.3% 14.2% 15.2% 11.5% 4.5% 0.9% 0.1%
James Knowlton 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.9% 4.2% 5.1% 8.6% 19.6% 26.8% 17.9% 7.1%
Olin Guck 7.6% 6.9% 8.2% 9.6% 9.6% 12.5% 13.2% 12.8% 10.5% 6.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Jack Sullivan 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 2.2% 2.9% 7.1% 14.8% 30.9% 37.4%
Kate Myler 0.8% 0.7% 1.1% 1.2% 1.8% 2.3% 3.9% 5.2% 7.3% 18.4% 27.2% 21.2% 8.9%
Patrick Stevenson 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 1.9% 2.8% 7.1% 12.5% 25.6% 46.3%
Drew Mastovsky 14.2% 14.7% 14.6% 13.5% 14.6% 9.8% 8.9% 5.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Kyle Pfrang 24.4% 21.9% 16.7% 14.1% 10.5% 6.0% 3.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.