Race 1B

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Jack Roman 15.9% 14.5% 12.6% 13.9% 13.2% 10.8% 8.1% 6.3% 3.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bradley Whiteway 13.0% 13.0% 13.1% 12.4% 11.5% 11.4% 10.6% 7.1% 4.7% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Julia Conneely 7.6% 7.5% 8.1% 8.9% 10.3% 12.0% 10.8% 13.0% 9.7% 8.4% 2.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Ian Hopkins Guerra 23.2% 19.7% 16.2% 12.3% 10.8% 8.6% 5.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Charles Morris 5.0% 5.5% 6.7% 6.2% 7.4% 8.6% 11.2% 13.7% 14.0% 11.9% 7.7% 1.9% 0.2%
Alexandra Chigas 10.1% 10.4% 12.5% 11.9% 12.2% 10.4% 11.7% 8.6% 7.3% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Olivia Lowthian 4.6% 7.0% 6.6% 9.4% 8.9% 10.8% 12.4% 12.4% 13.9% 9.8% 3.2% 0.8% 0.1%
Keller Morrison 3.5% 5.1% 5.5% 5.5% 6.9% 8.2% 9.0% 14.4% 17.0% 14.5% 8.2% 2.1% 0.2%
Nat Edmonds 1.7% 2.4% 3.0% 4.2% 3.5% 5.0% 6.4% 7.6% 13.2% 22.0% 19.9% 8.9% 2.3%
Tyler Nash 13.9% 13.1% 13.7% 12.3% 12.3% 10.2% 9.7% 7.5% 4.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Andy Giaya 0.8% 0.9% 1.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 2.6% 2.9% 5.9% 10.8% 24.6% 29.0% 17.1%
Carissa Keung 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 1.8% 2.1% 5.5% 12.1% 21.6% 53.0%
Maya Henning 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 2.2% 3.8% 7.4% 18.6% 34.2% 27.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.