Race 3B

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Tyler Nash 13.8% 13.3% 13.1% 12.9% 11.7% 11.0% 9.6% 7.2% 4.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Alexandra Chigas 9.7% 11.5% 11.1% 10.4% 11.5% 11.7% 12.8% 9.8% 6.2% 4.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Luke Quine 4.5% 5.1% 6.3% 7.5% 7.4% 10.7% 10.3% 14.1% 14.5% 11.8% 6.0% 1.5% 0.2%
Olivia Lowthian 5.7% 6.3% 7.6% 8.6% 8.8% 10.6% 10.8% 13.5% 13.4% 9.9% 3.9% 0.7% 0.2%
Bradley Whiteway 12.3% 13.1% 12.0% 13.9% 12.2% 11.0% 9.5% 7.8% 4.9% 2.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0%
Ian Hopkins Guerra 23.4% 19.1% 16.5% 13.0% 10.7% 7.8% 4.8% 2.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Jack Roman 16.6% 14.8% 13.9% 12.3% 13.1% 9.0% 8.2% 6.2% 3.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Nat Edmonds 1.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.9% 3.8% 5.3% 6.5% 8.3% 12.9% 21.1% 19.9% 8.7% 3.0%
Keller Morrison 4.3% 4.9% 5.2% 6.0% 7.7% 8.8% 10.2% 11.1% 15.4% 16.1% 7.1% 2.6% 0.5%
Julia Conneely 6.3% 7.6% 8.9% 9.4% 10.1% 10.7% 12.0% 12.7% 10.8% 7.3% 3.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Maya Henning 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.9% 2.1% 2.2% 3.6% 8.5% 17.9% 32.6% 28.9%
Andy Giaya 0.5% 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 2.5% 2.9% 5.4% 9.7% 26.4% 28.6% 17.4%
Carissa Keung 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% 1.8% 3.0% 4.9% 11.9% 24.2% 49.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.