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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.32+3.09vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.25+2.30vs Predicted
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3Columbia University2.55+3.38vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.06+3.97vs Predicted
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5University of Maryland2.18+2.42vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.88-0.51vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.74+2.07vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College1.87+0.46vs Predicted
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9Queen's University0.38+4.28vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.77-1.17vs Predicted
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11Cornell University2.85-5.41vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute2.29-4.79vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.13-1.84vs Predicted
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14George Washington University0.77-1.82vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.04-0.93vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook0.94-5.37vs Predicted
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18Syracuse University-1.01-2.12vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.09Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.320.2%1st Place
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4.3Fordham University3.250.2%1st Place
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6.38Columbia University2.550.1%1st Place
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7.97University of Pennsylvania2.060.1%1st Place
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7.42University of Maryland2.180.1%1st Place
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5.49U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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9.07Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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8.46SUNY Maritime College1.870.1%1st Place
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13.28Queen's University0.380.0%1st Place
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8.83George Washington University1.770.0%1st Place
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5.59Cornell University2.850.1%1st Place
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7.21Webb Institute2.290.1%1st Place
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11.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.130.0%1st Place
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12.18George Washington University0.770.0%1st Place
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14.07SUNY Stony Brook-0.040.0%1st Place
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11.63SUNY Stony Brook0.940.0%1st Place
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15.88Syracuse University-1.010.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Morrill | 19.7% | 15.0% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 15.6% | 16.6% | 14.4% | 13.0% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Conor Cashel | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joe Farned | 5.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Prucnal | 5.3% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Marissa Lihan | 10.4% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.1% |
| Arthur Libby | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Joy MacDonald | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 13.1% | 20.3% | 20.9% | 8.7% |
| Jay Spector | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Jennifer Borshoff | 11.6% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Stansky | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Baransky | 1.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 14.4% | 9.8% | 7.1% | 2.7% |
| Madeline Taggart | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 12.3% | 14.0% | 17.5% | 12.4% | 3.9% |
| Zachary Kyritsis | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 10.1% | 16.4% | 26.5% | 19.6% |
| Constantine Spentzos | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 3.1% |
| Erik Slawsky | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 17.4% | 61.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.