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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.60+3.17vs Predicted
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2Amherst College-0.35+6.64vs Predicted
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3Boston College1.95+0.52vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.54+2.65vs Predicted
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5Brown University0.33+2.11vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.40-1.39vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University1.25-2.07vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.42-3.43vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.85-2.96vs Predicted
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10Salve Regina University0.97-3.67vs Predicted
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11Middlebury College-1.76+0.11vs Predicted
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12University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.26-0.34vs Predicted
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13University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.27-1.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.17Roger Williams University1.6016.2%1st Place
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8.64Amherst College-0.352.1%1st Place
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3.52Boston College1.9520.8%1st Place
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6.65University of Vermont0.545.7%1st Place
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7.11Brown University0.334.8%1st Place
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4.61U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.4012.1%1st Place
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4.93Roger Williams University1.2510.1%1st Place
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4.57University of Rhode Island1.4213.0%1st Place
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6.04U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.857.5%1st Place
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6.33Salve Regina University0.976.5%1st Place
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11.11Middlebury College-1.760.4%1st Place
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11.66University of Massachusetts at Amherst-2.260.2%1st Place
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11.66University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-2.270.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Roman | 16.2% | 14.2% | 15.3% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nat Edmonds | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 25.7% | 17.2% | 7.2% | 0.9% |
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 20.8% | 18.5% | 17.1% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Quine | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 15.2% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Keller Morrison | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 10.0% | 12.3% | 15.7% | 16.4% | 6.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 12.1% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 12.4% | 13.5% | 12.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alexandra Chigas | 10.1% | 12.0% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 13.0% | 12.7% | 13.5% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Julia Conneely | 7.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Lowthian | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Maya Henning | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 8.3% | 28.7% | 29.8% | 20.9% |
| Ariana Schreibman | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 16.9% | 29.8% | 38.9% |
| Carissa Keung | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 5.5% | 17.6% | 29.3% | 39.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.