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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College1.66+6.13vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland0.90+6.78vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University1.94+2.49vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.60-0.21vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston1.31+2.50vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.57+0.83vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.81-0.95vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.01-2.68vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.27-1.40vs Predicted
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10Virginia Tech0.73-0.91vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy0.88-2.24vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.21-4.23vs Predicted
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13William and Mary-0.18-1.07vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.51-4.08vs Predicted
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15American University-1.62-0.95vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.13Washington College1.666.6%1st Place
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8.78St. Mary's College of Maryland0.903.9%1st Place
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5.49Georgetown University1.9410.9%1st Place
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3.79U. S. Naval Academy2.6021.4%1st Place
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7.5College of Charleston1.316.3%1st Place
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6.83Old Dominion University1.578.0%1st Place
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6.05Old Dominion University1.819.1%1st Place
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5.32Georgetown University2.0110.8%1st Place
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7.6George Washington University1.275.5%1st Place
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9.09Virginia Tech0.733.3%1st Place
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8.76U. S. Naval Academy0.884.3%1st Place
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7.77Christopher Newport University1.215.4%1st Place
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11.93William and Mary-0.181.3%1st Place
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9.92Hampton University0.512.6%1st Place
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14.05American University-1.620.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Gurnell | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Max Kleha | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 11.7% | 7.6% | 1.6% |
| Jack Corbett | 10.9% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 21.4% | 18.1% | 14.4% | 13.7% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Miles Wolff | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 0.5% |
| Parker Purrington | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Noyl Odom | 9.1% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Hughes | 10.8% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 0.2% |
| Aidan Young | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% |
| Colin MacGillivray | 4.3% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% |
| Brian Fox | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
| Sam Dutilly | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 13.2% | 32.6% | 16.4% |
| Can Dilikoglu | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 15.6% | 3.4% |
| Jacob Juros | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 11.2% | 72.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.