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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.60+2.76vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.57+4.81vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.01+2.27vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University1.21+3.85vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland0.90+3.83vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University1.94-0.55vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy0.88+1.79vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech0.73+0.93vs Predicted
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9Washington College1.66-1.70vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.27-2.48vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.81-4.92vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston1.31-4.65vs Predicted
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13William and Mary-0.18-1.04vs Predicted
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14Hampton University0.51-4.04vs Predicted
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15American University-1.62-0.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.76U. S. Naval Academy2.6021.4%1st Place
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6.81Old Dominion University1.577.1%1st Place
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5.27Georgetown University2.0112.0%1st Place
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7.85Christopher Newport University1.215.1%1st Place
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8.83St. Mary's College of Maryland0.903.6%1st Place
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5.45Georgetown University1.9412.6%1st Place
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8.79U. S. Naval Academy0.883.5%1st Place
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8.93Virginia Tech0.733.5%1st Place
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7.3Washington College1.665.3%1st Place
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7.52George Washington University1.275.1%1st Place
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6.08Old Dominion University1.8110.0%1st Place
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7.35College of Charleston1.317.1%1st Place
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11.96William and Mary-0.180.9%1st Place
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9.96Hampton University0.512.4%1st Place
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14.13American University-1.620.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Smith | 21.4% | 16.2% | 16.7% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Daniel Hughes | 12.0% | 12.0% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fox | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 0.8% |
| Max Kleha | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 1.7% |
| Jack Corbett | 12.6% | 10.7% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Colin MacGillivray | 3.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 1.4% |
| Aidan Young | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 1.5% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 5.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Noyl Odom | 10.0% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Miles Wolff | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Sam Dutilly | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 32.9% | 16.4% |
| Can Dilikoglu | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 16.4% | 14.1% | 3.9% |
| Jacob Juros | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 11.7% | 72.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.