Race 4A

riley-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Parker Purrington 7.1% 7.2% 8.0% 7.5% 8.2% 9.3% 9.2% 8.6% 7.7% 7.1% 7.9% 5.7% 4.1% 1.8% 0.4%
Jack Corbett 10.8% 11.9% 11.2% 12.0% 10.2% 9.6% 8.0% 7.0% 6.6% 3.9% 4.5% 2.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Noyl Odom 9.3% 9.3% 9.2% 9.3% 9.2% 9.6% 9.2% 8.6% 8.1% 5.6% 4.7% 4.7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Brian Fox 5.8% 5.9% 5.5% 7.3% 5.1% 6.8% 8.2% 7.8% 9.4% 9.6% 8.1% 8.6% 7.4% 3.8% 0.7%
Nathan Smith 21.9% 17.8% 14.3% 13.1% 10.8% 7.2% 5.1% 4.4% 2.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Can Dilikoglu 2.5% 3.0% 3.4% 2.8% 4.4% 4.9% 5.5% 5.5% 6.5% 8.7% 8.2% 10.4% 15.3% 14.8% 4.0%
Oscar MacGillivray 6.0% 7.2% 5.9% 6.9% 7.2% 7.8% 8.6% 8.0% 7.1% 9.4% 9.0% 8.2% 5.5% 2.6% 0.5%
Daniel Hughes 11.5% 11.3% 11.6% 10.9% 10.4% 9.8% 7.7% 8.3% 6.2% 5.3% 3.5% 2.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Stewart Gurnell 6.2% 6.9% 7.1% 6.4% 7.6% 8.3% 7.6% 8.8% 9.1% 9.0% 8.8% 6.6% 4.9% 2.4% 0.3%
Miles Wolff 6.0% 6.1% 7.0% 7.1% 6.9% 7.6% 8.5% 7.8% 8.2% 8.1% 7.8% 8.1% 6.4% 3.7% 0.5%
Colin MacGillivray 2.9% 4.3% 4.9% 5.2% 5.4% 6.0% 6.9% 6.7% 8.0% 9.2% 10.0% 10.8% 11.1% 7.2% 1.5%
Max Kleha 4.5% 4.4% 5.1% 5.0% 6.2% 4.7% 6.1% 7.2% 8.5% 8.0% 9.8% 9.6% 10.7% 8.5% 1.8%
Sam Dutilly 1.3% 1.0% 1.4% 1.7% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 3.5% 3.8% 4.5% 5.1% 8.5% 12.0% 34.8% 15.3%
Aidan Young 3.9% 3.2% 5.0% 4.2% 5.5% 5.8% 5.9% 7.0% 6.7% 8.8% 10.2% 11.2% 12.4% 8.1% 1.8%
Jacob Juros 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.8% 1.5% 1.1% 1.8% 2.9% 4.9% 10.8% 73.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.