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📊 Prediction Accuracy
20.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.01+4.39vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.57+4.98vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University1.94+2.39vs Predicted
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4Virginia Tech0.73+5.05vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University1.21+2.83vs Predicted
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6Hampton University0.51+3.93vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.81-1.18vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy2.60-4.19vs Predicted
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9George Washington University1.27-1.30vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston1.31-2.47vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy0.88-2.32vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland0.90-3.22vs Predicted
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13Washington College1.66-5.93vs Predicted
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14American University-1.62+0.10vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-0.18-3.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.39Georgetown University2.0111.6%1st Place
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6.98Old Dominion University1.577.0%1st Place
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5.39Georgetown University1.9410.5%1st Place
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9.05Virginia Tech0.733.2%1st Place
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7.83Christopher Newport University1.215.1%1st Place
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9.93Hampton University0.512.9%1st Place
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5.82Old Dominion University1.8110.2%1st Place
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3.81U. S. Naval Academy2.6020.9%1st Place
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7.7George Washington University1.275.1%1st Place
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7.53College of Charleston1.316.2%1st Place
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8.68U. S. Naval Academy0.884.5%1st Place
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8.78St. Mary's College of Maryland0.903.6%1st Place
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7.07Washington College1.667.3%1st Place
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14.1American University-1.620.3%1st Place
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11.94William and Mary-0.181.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Hughes | 11.6% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Parker Purrington | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Jack Corbett | 10.5% | 12.7% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Young | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 2.6% |
| Brian Fox | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Can Dilikoglu | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 3.8% |
| Noyl Odom | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Smith | 20.9% | 16.9% | 17.0% | 10.2% | 11.3% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 0.6% |
| Miles Wolff | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 0.3% |
| Colin MacGillivray | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 7.3% | 1.2% |
| Max Kleha | 3.6% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 1.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Jacob Juros | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 10.3% | 74.1% |
| Sam Dutilly | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 13.5% | 34.1% | 14.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.